COX AUTOMOTIVE INDICATORS REFLECT SLUMP IN SENTIMENT

Both the Moody’s Analytics and CNN Back-to-Normal Index and the Index of Consumer Sentiment from Morning Consult declined week over week, mainly from stock market volatility and gas prices continuing to increase.
 
Cox Automotive leading indicators are mostly down so far in October, with the bright spot being service metrics that are trending positively.

Access to auto credit expanded for the first time in five months in September, according to the Dealertrack Credit Availability Index for all types of auto loans. All loan types saw loosening in September. All new loans loosened the most while used loans through independent dealers loosened the least in the month.

Read the Auto Market Weekly Summary and watch the Auto Market Report video for more data and insights from Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke on new and used retail sales and inventory, depreciation patterns and Cox Automotive leading indicators.

VEHICLE LOSS FROM HURRICANE IAN COULD TOP 50,000

Any time a hurricane wreaks havoc, prevention and mitigation to reduce loss of life and property are top priorities. Clearly, life is more important, but we do receive many inquiries about the vehicle-specific impact of various storms.
 
When considering the range of severely damaged vehicles in the wake of Hurricane Ian, Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke believes the impact will be around 50,000 vehicles, a number far lower than Hurricane Harvey from 2017, which ultimately resulted in an excess of 300,000 vehicles damaged or destroyed. 
 
See the report on Hurricane Ian related to vehicle damage and the subsequent replacement demand and wholesale prices.

THE FED NEEDS TO SLOW DOWN AND ASSESS THE IMPACT ON CRITICAL SECTORS LIKE AUTO

For much of 2022, and particularly in the first half, vehicle demand has been healthy despite tight inventory and high prices. However, recent actions by the Federal Reserve are beginning to negatively impact the auto market.
 
Instead of making incremental changes and then pausing to assess the impact, the Fed is full steam ahead with its plan to induce pain in the economy.
 
Read the latest Smoke on Cars piece to see Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke’s thoughts on how the latest Fed rate increase and very hawkish plans have changed the outlook for the auto market.

MANHEIM USED VEHICLE VALUE INDEX SEES ANOTHER STRONG DECLINE AS MARKET CONTINUES TO SLOW

Wholesale used-vehicle prices decreased 3.0% in September from August. This brought the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to 204.5, down 0.1% from a year ago. The non-adjusted price change declined 2.1% in September, bringing it to a decrease of 2.3% year over year. September 2022 was the first month since May 2020 that wholesale values declined year over year.
 
Watch the replay and download the presentation to see more from Smoke as well as Chris Frey, senior manager of economic and industry insights for Cox Automotive, and Jeremy Robb, senior director of market insights and business solutions at Cox Automotive.